Source: Oxfam Aotearoa
- Top six fossil fuel corporations expect Q2 profits to nearly double Q1 levels. Annual profits for 2026 are set to exceed the previous 21 months combined.
- Emissions from five fossil fuel corporations were enough to cause about 1 in 4 heatwaves between 2000 and 2023, which would have been virtually impossible without climate change.
- A tax on the richest oil and gas corporations could raise up to $400 billion in its first year, enough to cover annual climate adaptation costs in low- and middle-income countries.
The world’s six biggest fossil fuel corporations are expected to nearly double their combined net income in the second quarter of 2026, jumping from $23 billion in the previous quarter to $45 billion, reveals new Oxfam analysis ahead of their earnings announcements. New data also finds that the emissions of these corporations have significantly magnified the frequency and severity of heatwaves this century.
The projected full-year profits of BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies amount to $147 billion, more than their combined profits over the previous 21 months (Q2 2024 to Q4 2025). Among the biggest winners, Chevron is expected to report that it has quadrupled its profits to $1,200 a second in the last three months, while ExxonMobil’s profits are expected to have tripled to $1,800 a second.
Oil and gas corporations share an outsized responsibility for the climate crisis. New Oxfam analysis of academic data published in Nature finds that the emissions from BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies were sufficient to cause around 1 in 4 heatwaves reported globally between 2000 and 2023 – heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible without human-made climate change. Using S&P Capital Trucost data, Oxfam estimates that Big Oil was responsible for $60 billion in environmental damage last year.
The findings come as record-breaking heatwaves scorch South Asia, Europe and North America, killing tens of thousands of people. Meanwhile, West African countries are struggling with devastating monsoons and floods that have upended thousands of lives and destroyed vital infrastructure across the region.
Yet rather than scaling back fossil fuel production and accelerating the transition to renewable energy, the six largest fossil fuel corporations plan to increase oil and gas production by 14 percent by 2030 compared to 2024 levels, equivalent to pumping an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil a day.
“Fossil fuel corporations are making a killing, literally and figuratively. As extreme heat, floods and storms devastate communities across the world, the industry is preparing another bonanza of profits. Families are paying the price three times over: through destroyed homes and harvests, through soaring energy prices, and through a cost-of-living crisis worsened by dependence on fossil fuels. Big Oil’s greed is incompatible with a livable planet and unless governments rein it in, they will make a mockery of international climate targets,” said Oxfam’s Climate Policy Lead Mariana Paoli.
Oxfam estimates that a tax on the profits of the largest fossil fuel corporations could raise up to $400 billion globally in its first year, enough to cover annual climate adaptation costs in the Global South. An additional excess profits tax on all corporations could generate up to $681 billion globally.
“While Big Oil fuels extreme weather events, rich countries are refusing to increase the public climate finance that poorer countries urgently need to cope with the climate crisis,” said Paoli. “Until governments make the richest polluters pay, fossil fuel corporations will keep driving us deeper into climate chaos. Taxing the richest polluters could help close the gap in funding for climate adaptation and speed the transition towards renewable energy. Fossil fuel corporations must feel the heat, not us.”
Political momentum for taxing the richest polluters is growing. Italy, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Austria have called for a new windfall tax on energy profits. In Australia, where Oxfam research found that one in three coal, oil and gas corporations are paying no corporate income tax, many members of Parliament are speaking out in support of a 25 percent export tax on gas, with strong public support.
Research in 60 countries found that 28 percent of them have implemented a temporary windfall tax on excess profits from fossil fuel companies in recent years, with a further 13 percent supportive. Just 12 percent are explicitly against the measure.
Oxfam Aotearoa’s Advocacy and Policy Lead, Nick Henry, said, “Fossil fuel companies have a global responsibility for climate change. The New Zealand Government should be holding these rich polluters to account and making them pay the cost of their climate damage.”
Oxfam’s research is based on S&P Capital IQ’s consensus estimates compiled from financial analysts’ forecasts. The six largest fossil fuel corporations are due to publish their second-quarter earnings over the coming week. The projected surge in profits reflects the sharp rise in oil prices following the unlawful US and Israel war against Iran.
Heatwave deaths and West African flooding
UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025
Oxfam’s rich polluter profit tax model