Is the ‘brain drain’ real – and is it really a problem?

Source: Radio New Zealand

Do we really have a ‘brain drain’ and is it a problem?

New research from Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures, has argued gaps in the data and too-simplistic analysis could be limiting New Zealanders’ understanding of migration trends.

The paper by Sir Peter Gluckman, Georgia Lala and Christoph Grant notes between 2021 and 2025, annual New Zealand citizen departures rose from around 26,000 to 64,000. That lifted from 0.44 percent of the population in 2021 to 1.34 percent of the population in 2025.

But it says this is not unprecedented and migration patterns need to be understood in a broader historical and economic context.

“Historical patterns in New Zealand suggest that the recent uptick in departures may simply be a part of a wider cyclical pattern, rather than a clear sign of a structural deviation from historical norms.”

It said there had been previous increases in times of economic stability like the 1978 oil crisis, 1987 stock market crash and the 2008 global financial crisis.

“Migration decisions are shaped by a range of push and pull factors. Yet the ebbs and flows of New Zealand citizen migration reflect the reality that, in a globalised world, people can and will move if mobility is an option and offshore outlooks appear better. Conversely, movement may restrict if outlooks appear better onshore, suggesting it is possible that we are not in a brain drain ‘crisis’ but rather a sustained cycle of movement.”

The report said the share of people departing who were aged 20 to 34 rose from 41 percent to 43 percent between 2021 and 2025 but that was just a return to historical averages.

“Youth mobility is a prominent part of Kiwi culture, and high mobility amongst young adults is not, on its own, a cause for concern. If those departing New Zealand elect to return home after some time working or studying abroad, they can bring with them new skills, experiences, ideas and networks.

“The question of whether there is an accelerated brain drain is largely dependent on whether those departing New Zealand will return at some point in the future.”

Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said migration had been talked about in a way that made it sound like something “wildly unusual and debilitating to the economy’ in the past couple of years.

“That’s not necessarily true. The number of people leaving has been high. It hasn’t been off-the-charts high.

“And more importantly … all the times that you’ve seen these record high or near record high departure numbers, you’ve still had more people coming into New Zealand than leaving.”

The report noted that despite an increase in emigration since 2021, immigration had made up for the losses since New Zealand fully reopened its borders.

“Based on publicly available data and the formal definition of a brain drain, we cannot say for certain whether New Zealand is experiencing a brain drain ‘crisis’, nor whether any such trend is short-term or long-term … Although immigration currently offsets emigration, immigration remains volatile in the global competition for talent. Net flows of skills and educational attainment in and out of New Zealand also remain unclear … What is clear, however, is that the public and political narratives concerning a brain drain are grounded in limited data and its selective interpretation, as well as a failure to acknowledge both the valuable skills immigrants bring into the country and the historically cyclical nature of New Zealand emigration.”

Gluckman said people had been moving between Australia and New Zealand for decades.

“We simply do not have sufficient data or understanding of the people leaving New Zealand to be certain about the nature or nuances of the issue,” he said.

“The current migration patterns do not appear to exceed historical episodes, but that does not mean we should be complacent. We need to better understand what is happening and continue to find ways to make New Zealand an attractive place to live, work and build a future.

“Even the terminology ‘brain drain’ may be misleading: the educational levels of migrants are very similar to those of our population and may be higher than those leaving although the data is very uncertain.

“Let’s get past the histrionics and let’s get the data. A more constructive approach is needed if we are to fully understand our migration patterns, particularly our emigrating population.”

Olsen said the level of arrivals was high considering the labour market was relatively weak.

“The unemployment rate is above 5 percent … So, there’s sort of this question over what’s driving all these migration flows?

“Why have we got such a strong pull still of people to come into New Zealand? When we talk to businesses, it’s around skills gaps and mismatches and the likes. So, there’s a lot of those different elements playing through. The other one, and it’s a drum that we’ve been beating for a long time as well, we have a pretty good idea of who comes into New Zealand. Not fully for absolutely every person, but we’ve got a pretty good idea around the likes of occupations and broad skills that people might be bringing in. We have no idea who we’re losing. We don’t ask people when they leave what they’re taking with them.”

He said that was a blind spot for the country.

“This entire conversation also sort of ties into a wider conversation that came through politically on Friday around the likes of fees free and similar, which is we’re still not sort of making it as strong of a connection between the likes of New Zealand’s migration system and our education system and everything else.

“We still don’t have a national skills plan that says we need these skills and this talent going forward, and therefore we need to incentivise those groups to be trained up. But there’s hope that with the scrapping of fees free and talk of a more focused, targeted approach, there’s greater potential to look at some of those options and go, look, these are sort of skills that we think we might be losing or that we know that we need into the future. So, therefore, let’s fund them through into either further study, trades, whatever it might be, so that we have the right skills when the economy needs it.”

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand