Source: Radio New Zealand
The latest Education Ministry forecast suggests the number of children at school is dropping. 123RF
The latest Education Ministry forecast suggests the number of children at school is dropping after reaching a record high last year.
The annual National School Roll Projections said there were 849,385 children at school in 2025 but in 2026 there would be 846,386 and by 2035 there would be 808,561.
The figures were for full-time equivalents with full-time defined as 20 hours a week attendance.
The forecast drop would take primary and intermediate schools from 526,590 pupils last year to 497,494 in 2035.
Secondary school rolls would increase slightly this year to 325,050 before dropping to 311,067 in 2035.
The forecast followed a decade in which the national roll increased by about one percent or more almost every year since 2015.
The increase took the national roll from 760,792 in 2014 to last year’s total of nearly 850,000.
The biggest increase was a migration-driven 2.2 percent 17,937-student leap in 2024.
“Total estimated school-age net migration is 11,103 in the year to 30 June 2025, as per data available at 10 July 2025. Projected school-age net migration in the short term is 10,215 for 2026,” the ministry’s report said.
However, it said a blip in birth rates was behind the recent rise and looming fall in enrolments.
“The historic short-term rise and projected longer-term fall can be attributed mainly to a mini ‘baby-boom’ of larger birth cohorts, which peaked in 2007 and 2010 and are now moving out of the schooling system. As a result, the overall school population will drop primarily based on lower births in subsequent cohorts,” it said.
The total included enrolments at specialist schools for children with disabilities.
Their roll was projected to increase from 7174 in 2025 to 8058 in 2035.
Meanwhile, homeschooling, which was not included in the totals, was expected to increase “from 11,014 in 2025 to a peak of 11,297 students in 2028, before trending slightly downward to 11,132 in 2035”.
Earlier this year the ministry forecast an ongoing surplus of primary school teachers but shortages of secondary teachers.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
