Source: Radio New Zealand
National Party leader Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins. RNZ
The latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll shows National slightly up – but still below 30%, and Labour slightly down, with the coalition parties comfortably able to form a government.
Labour on 33.4% is still above National on 29.8%.
But with NZ First up about 4 points to 13.6%, and ACT up 1.5 points to 9%, the coalition would have 65 seats to the opposition’s 55.
The Greens were down nearly 3 points to about 8%, and Te Pāti Māori is down half a point to 2.6%.
The Opportunity Party was the only minor party outside Parliament to register, up half a point to 2.6%.
At the start of March, the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll had National on 28.4 percent – down nearly three percentage points from the month before. The latest RNZ/Reid Research poll had the party on 30.8 percent, also trending downwards.
Both March polls had National behind Labour, which polled 34.4 percent in the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll and 35.6 percent according to RNZ/Reid Research.
The latest Roy Morgan poll, released at the end of March, had National on 26.5 percent and Labour on 34 percent.
Recent polling has generally had support for the left (Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori) and right (National, ACT and NZ First) blocs finely balanced.
The general election is scheduled to be held on 7 November.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders (700 by phone and 300 online) and is weighted to the overall adult population.
It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
