Source: Save the Children
Food prices have surged in some of the most food-insecure countries in the Middle East and wider region due to the ongoing conflict, threatening to push the most vulnerable families further into hunger as Eid approaches, Save the Children said.
Families already struggling after years of conflict and economic shocks have told Save the Children staff that rising food and fuel costs – compounded by war and displacement – are stripping away the joy of Eid al-Fitr, the celebration marking the end of Ramadan. Eid this year for many families will be a time of fear and hunger with more than 4 million people newly displaced mostly in Iran and Lebanon.[1]
While food prices generally tend to rise around Eid, the conflict has driven fuel and food prices higher than usual, pushing already vulnerable families closer to the brink while forcing many others to forgo Eid traditions such as buying new clothes for the celebrations, decorating homes or sharing sweets and chocolates.
Even before the conflict, about one in six people in the Middle East region did not know where their next meal would come from and had to sacrifice the quality of their food because of financial constraints. [2] In Lebanon supply chain disruptions and uncertainty in local markets have further driven up prices. Save the Children’s analysis of the cost of fuel and six key foods for a healthy diet found prices rose by 5% between 23 February and 9 March.[3]
One million people – or 20% of the population – have been displaced in Lebanon since the escalation started on 2 March. [4] Families living in collective shelters will miss out on food traditionally eaten by their families to mark Eid, while others staying outside shelters are prioritising spending on essentials due to ongoing uncertainty, Save the Children staff reported.
Iran’s suspension of food and agricultural exports has had a significant impact on Afghanistan where about 9 million children – or one in three – are facing severe hunger. [5] Iran accounts for 30% of Afghanistan’s imports, including key goods such as food and fuel.[6] Prices of some vegetables and cooking oil have surged 13% in the past month, while staples are up 3%, according to Save the Children price’s monitoring. [7]
Fruit sellers in Herat, close to the Iran border, said the price of dried fruit – traditionally bought for Eid – has risen sharply. Families are replacing more expensive items used in Eid dishes with cheaper alternatives such as chickpeas, raisins, and pumpkin seeds.
In Iran, the UN has reported that preexisting economic pressures such as economic stagnation, high food inflation, and rapid currency depreciation which were already driving food insecurity prior to the current conflict, is leaving households with limited capacity to absorb further shocks.
The Government of Israel’s closure of the Rafah border on the second day of the conflict- which still remains closed to the entry of humanitarian goods and supplies – contributed to spiking prices in Gaza, compounding the inflationary effects of two years of war. Some fruits and vegetables have disappeared or become scarce in markets. The cost of peppers, potatoes, and onions more than tripled in less than two weeks while the prices of eggs and meat have also risen, putting children’s nutrition and development at risk.[8]
The UN has warned that if the conflict continues, elevated prices could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger, up from 318 million, to an all-time record-high.[9]
The effects could be felt in sub-Saharan Africa which is heading into planting season and relies on fertiliser shipped through the Strait of Hormuz – conduit for 40% of world fertilizer.
Ahmad Alhendawi, Save the Children’s regional director for the Middle East and eastern Europe said:
“Eid, traditionally a time of celebration and community, will be disquietingly unfamiliar for many children across the Middle East and wider region as the human and economic cost of the conflict unfolds.
“Children have been killed, displaced, and prices of everyday essentials such as food are rising. For children in Gaza and elsewhere, who have already endured unimaginable horrors during what is supposed to be one of the most joyful times of the year, this Eid looks to bring little respite.
“These price hikes are hitting children and families across the region whose safety, security and incomes have in many cases been battered by years of conflict and economic crises. It’s not difficult to imagine how even the smallest cost increase is a blow to these families who are already on the brink and exhausted by conflict and crises.
“It is another stark reminder of how conflict upends the life of children, inflicting new wounds on a generation of children across the Middle East and wider region, many of whom already carry the physical and mental scars of years of violence, insecurity, or deprivation.”
Save the Children is urgently calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. All parties to the conflict must adhere to their obligations under international humanitarian law, including by facilitating the unimpeded passage of humanitarian supplies, fertiliser, and food through the Strait of Hormuz.
[3] Based on prices for rice, flour, red lentils, sunflower oil, eggs and tomatoes as reported in the Lebanon Ministry of Economy and Trade mini-basket of prices on 23 February and 9 March 2026. Fuel prices taken from IPT.
[4] Ministry of Social Affairs data, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-flash-update-9-escalation-hostilities-lebanon-16-march-2026
[6] World Bank: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/84116346a00db27c63e041f86892ba01-0310012026/original/Afghanistan-Economic-Monitor-December-2025.pdf
[7] Save the Children market price monitoring in Afghanistan
[8] Save the Children market price monitoring in Gaza. Prices collected on 23 and 28 February and 8 February.
