Prime minister retreats to safe law and order ground in Pacific

Source: Radio New Zealand

Analysis: When stuck in a bind, Christopher Luxon can always rely on talking about law and order.

It’s one of the few things National continues to outpoll Labour on in the Ipsos Issues Monitor, and something he took with him to the Pacific.

Luxon has weathered the storm of some bad polls, and the Pacific is always a perfect location to get away from the grind of Wellington and leave the sticky issues to his ministers.

Though this trip almost got derailed before it had even began, he will be returning from Samoa and Tonga satisfied that the New Zealand government is doing its bit to help its Pacific neighbours with transnational crime and the fight against drug trafficking.

But questions over what specific support New Zealand can offer on fuel resilience remain, as does the pain point on visa access.

Those calling for New Zealand to allow its Pacific family to have the same rights as people from 60 other countries, and be granted visa waivers at the border, would have felt Luxon’s trip was a perfect opportunity for him to announce a liberalising of immigration laws.

Instead, just ahead of the trip, the government announced a trial of cheaper visas, which Luxon pointed to as New Zealand doing its bit.

The gesture was certainly appreciated by Tonga’s prime minister, Lord Fakafanua, but Samoa’s more bellicose prime minister La’aulialemalietoa Leuatea Polataivao Fosi Schmidt will continue to make the call for New Zealand to go further.

On the eve of the trip, La’aulialemalietoa caused a minor diplomatic incident, which threatened to overshadow Luxon’s entire time in Samoa.

The ‘did-he-didn’t-he-no-he-didn’t-stop-asking-about-it’ over Luxon’s matai title Tuisinavemaulumoto’otua is likely to be the subject of ongoing discussion in Samoa even as he leaves Apia behind, as will whether New Zealand should be doing more in compensation for the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui. On that point, Luxon was clear that the compensation was full and final, but is open to further discussions on the wreck’s future.

There is no doubt Luxon was annoyed by the entire matai title episode, though he would never admit it. He was keen to brush the incident off, and instead talk about where he and La’aulialemalietoa were aligned.

Luxon will take home a feeling that he dodged a bullet somewhat, escaping what was on the verge of turning from a minor diplomatic headache into a full-blown squabble.

It did not help that every time New Zealand made it clear he did not ask for his matai, La’aulialemalietoa would dig in deeper, telling an gala dinner audience in front of Luxon (but speaking in

Samoan so Luxon would not immediately hear) that it took phone calls in the wee small hours of Monday morning to smooth things over.

His rapport with Lord Fakafanua was certainly calmer, with Luxon speaking fondly of the time he had lunch with the prime minister nearly two years ago, when he was still the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly.

While it is normal for leaders to recall previous meetings, the warmth and specificity of Luxon’s memories of the occasion look like he has found another strong ally in the Pacific, joining the likes of Dalton Tagelagi and Sitiveni Rabuka as leaders he has genuinely enjoyed strong rapport with.

The fuel crisis is of growing concern in the Pacific, and Luxon and his Pacific counterparts have vowed to share whatever information they get with each other.

Both Tonga and Samoa are focused on having enough energy-in country, with Tonga’s prime minister less concerned about the prospect of Air New Zealand cutting back its Pacific connections than he is on ensuring he manages his people’s expectations. For now, Lord Fakafanua is reassuring Tongans that the fuel supply is fine.

Both countries see information-sharing as the main thing they can do for each other, for the moment. Luxon sees the question of whether New Zealand would divert some of its fuel to Samoa or Tonga as a hypothetical, but the longer the conflict goes on, the more New Zealand may have to think about the options. It would be a good gesture to a friend and neighbour, but if New Zealanaders start paying significantly more at the pump, it may be politically unpalatable.

Transnational crime, as well, will rely on New Zealand, Samoa, and Tonga scaling up their information-sharing. Agreements between police and customs, more money for detector dogs, and allowing Samoa and Tonga to subscribe Starboard’s maritime intelligence platform were all welcomed by Luxon’s hosts.

The presence of the police commissioner, chief executive of customs, and the police minister on the trip were all a sign of how seriously New Zealand takes the matter (although Mark Mitchell’s main responsibility appeared to be as morale booster – raising the flag at a school rugby league game as sports minister, and ably attempting to fill time before a long-delayed joint-Cabinet meeting in Apia by talking rugby league and wondering whether the long wait was because the prime ministers had decided to get a head start on the roast pig.)

It will take a lot more to solve the problem, but these are all good starts, and show the Pacific uniting on a response to a Pacific problem. Luxon will be keen to get updates if he does end up attending the Pacific Islands Forum in Palau later this year.

Luxon leaves Samoa and Tonga with a renewed satisfaction the countries are on top of the drug crisis, but also returns with some rather special gifts.

In addition his matai title, a fue, and model fale and school buildings, Luxon was also presented with a portrait, painted by students from a local Methodist church.

It was slightly less flattering than the one they painted of La’aulialemalietoa, but Luxon laughed it off. Exactly where it will be displayed is still to be determined, with Luxon saying it would go “straight to the pool room.”

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters is known to distribute some of the many gifts he receives amongst his staff, so perhaps one lucky Dignitary Protection Service staffer will have something to take home with them.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand