Source: Radio New Zealand
Canterbury flooding – Little River – 17 February 2026 RNZ/Nathan McKinnon
The latest data from Earth Sciences New Zealand shows just how wet and cool it was at some points this summer for parts of the South Island and lower North Island.
Chester Lampkin from Earth Sciences New Zealand told Morning Report although it may not have seemed like the best summer, overall the summer was about average, he said.
“Essentially we had a warm start to the summer, December was nearly 1C above what is considered the average and temperatures were near average for January and then it just got a little bit colder.”
In February temperatures were half a degree below average, there was low pressure and more southerlies, he said.
“As a result this is going to end up being an average summer, people won’t remember it that way but statistically that’s how it played out.”
The summer was dominated by lots of high pressure but there were three very unsettled periods, he said.
Flooding at Little River in Canterbury on 17 February 2026. RNZ/Nathan McKinnon
It was unsettled from Christmas to New Year holiday period with many places getting a lot of rain and wind, he said.
From around 20 to 22 January it was also unsettled and that was when record rainfall in Coromandel and Bay of Plenty saw the tragic incidents that occurred there, he said.
“We have the storm that occurred around Valentines Day that brought heavy rain to Gisborne and rain and wind to the Wellington region and parts of the South Island and continued all the way down to Banks Peninsula and Otago.”
Parts of the South Island and lower North Island such as Wellington Christchurch and Dunedin had above normal rainfall and below or near normal in terms of temperature, he said.
Earth Sciences New Zealand’s map forecasting the seasonal climate outlook from March-May 2026. Earth Sciences New Zealand
The weather pattern in autumn is expected to be similar to what happened in the summer, he said.
“That means the possibility of some tropical intrusions or some tropical air seeping southwards from the tropics across the North Island and perhaps the upper South and temperatures will likely be reflected in that if we get more tropical lows that’ll keep temperatures down, at western areas, particularly the South Island will be a little warmer than average but maybe you won’t notice it because it’ll be cooler autumn air.”
Lampkin said it would be difficult to predict how much sunshine there would be but his best guess was that “a lot of New Zealand would be in the cloud for much of the autumn as well”.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
