Source: Radio New Zealand
First-home buyers were still a strong force in the market, but dropped to 26.2 percent of transactions compared to 28.3 percent at the end of 2025. Unsplash/ Jakub Żerdzicki
Homeowners becoming willing to brave the housing market and shift to a new property could be a positive thing for the economy, one economist says.
Cotality, formerly Corelogic, has released its latest property data pack.
It shows that sales volumes were down 10.7 percent on the same month in 2025. It followed a stronger-than-expected December.
Property economist Kelvin Davidson said, when taking the two months together, there was still an overall lift in transactions.
“We’d expect to see more sales growth activity in 2026 on the back of reduced mortgage rates and a recovering economy,” he said.
Values dropped 1 percent in the year to January but Cotality said while Auckland and Wellington were soft, areas such as Dunedin and Invercargill had more pressure on prices.
Nationally prices are still down 17.5 percent from their peak but Wellington’s are down 25.5 percent compared to 3.6 percent in Christchurch.
First-home buyers were still a strong force in the market, but dropped to 26.2 percent of transactions compared to 28.3 percent at the end of 2025.
Investors were also active. But chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said movers’ share of the market increased from 25.3 percent to 27 percent. These are people who own a home and are moving to another.
“To be fair, it’s early days. But this could be the first sign that as economic confidence starts to recover more owner-occupying households may start to look at the market again and relocate. Their activity has been quieter than normal lately, so some pent-up demand to shift is probably present.
“They’ve been relatively quiet for quite a long time, biding their time, Watching the economy still feeling a little bit cautious about taking that next step, trading up, moving house. You probably don’t necessarily want to do that if you don’t have to in an uncertain environment.”
He said it was not a trend yet but something he had been watching for.
“All that time that movers have been quiet, there’s still been life going on. People have been changing their circumstances yet not moving. So I suspect there’s probably a bit of pent-up demand there that will come out at some point.”
He said, if it did, people such as valuers and real estate salespeople would benefit, but so too would big ticket retailers. “A good time to move house might be a good time to get a new sofa, that sort of thing.”
Flat prices might disappoint sellers but were positive for buyers.
“The predictability of current conditions is reassuring for buyers, who are continuing to adjust to the recent experience of stable prices and lower mortgage rates,” Davidson said.
“With affordability gradually improving and employment conditions set to strengthen slowly this year, there’s a growing sense of cautious optimism, even if the recovery will be measured rather than sharp. Debt to income ratio caps remain important to watch.”
The data showed rents were subdued.
Prices were down over the year in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga and Wellington.
The median national rent fell 0.8 percent in the last quarter of the year compared to the same time a year earlier.
Davidson said it was likely behaviour would shift, activity would improve and 2026 would be a year of gradual growth for sales and prices.
“Affordability has improved to its best position in several years, mortgage rates have eased, and listings are gradually drifting lower. Those factors combined are helping to steady the market and should support a lift in sales activity through 2026,” he said.
“Other considerations include borrowers who are rolling off higher fixed rates onto cheaper loans, which will help free up cashflow for some households and should the labour market slowly gather steam as expected, that sets the scene for modest price growth rather than a sharp rebound.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
