Source: Cotality
New Zealand’s property owners are holding onto their properties for the longest period since records began, as the trend of declining profit and more frequent losses for vendors stabilises.
Cotality NZ’s Pain and Gain Report for Q4 2025 shows 88.1% of residential properties resold for more than their original purchase price in the December quarter, broadly in line with 88.0% in Q3.
While the figure is still well below the peak of more than 99% recorded in late 2021, the latest result marks an end to three consecutive quarterly declines for profit-making resales.
Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the figures suggest the market has entered a trough, which is consistent with how wider property values nationally have performed in recent months.
“Resale performance is still soft compared with the boom years, but the data suggests the downward drift has slowed and flatlined, and conditions are broadly holding steady,” Mr Davidson said.
“Property values have flattened out in recent months, and that stability is now flowing through to resale data. This has been a gradual downwards drift in resale performance since early 2022 rather than a slump, and almost nine out of 10 sellers are still making a profit when they trade.”
The national median resale gain in Q4 was $298,000, down from the late-2021 peak of $440,000 but still higher than anything seen prior to 2021. The median resale loss was $55,000, only slightly higher than in the September quarter.
As always, it’s worth keeping in mind that these gains, at least for owner occupiers, aren’t necessarily cash windfalls if they simply have to use all of that fresh equity for their next property purchase.
Hold periods hit highest level on record
Properties resold for a gain in Q4 had been held for a median of 10.1 years, the longest period recorded in the series dating back to the mid-1990s.
By contrast, homes resold at a loss had typically been owned for 3.9 years, which Mr Davidson noted placed many purchases close to the country’s most recent market peak.
“We haven’t seen a significant jump in the historical time ranges, but this hold period surpasses the previous high of 9.4 years, which was only set in the September quarter last year,” he said.
“This highlights the weakness of property values that has persisted since late 2021, which may be prompting some owners to hold longer as they look to maximise their capital growth. In other cases, it may reflect a quieter market and sellers are having to wait longer for a sale.”
Houses outperform apartments
Standalone houses continued to record a lower frequency of resale losses than apartments in Q4, with house resale performance broadly steady over the quarter.
Apartments remained more exposed to loss-making resales, reflecting smaller long-term capital gains and greater sensitivity to recent market conditions. Even so, Mr Davidson said there is little evidence of widespread distressed or forced selling.
“Apartments tend to feel market downturns more acutely, but the data does not point to sellers under pressure or fire sales occurring,” Mr Davidson said.
“The gap largely reflects long-run differences in performance rather than any sudden deterioration in demand for property types.”
Main centres show tentative improvement
Several main centres recorded small improvements in resale outcomes over the December quarter, helping underpin the national stabilisation.
Auckland continued to have the highest share of loss-making resales among the main centres at 17.4%, although this was down from Q3. Wellington and Tauranga also recorded modest easing, while Dunedin saw the sharpest quarterly improvement.
Christchurch remained the most resilient of the main centres, with 5.3% of resales made at a loss in Q4.
“We’d probably need another quarter or two of flatter results before calling a genuine turning point, but there are already tentative hints that resellers are starting to fare a little better in the main centres,” he said.
Outlook stable, not spectacular
New Zealand’s economic outlook, early signs of rising sales volumes and a tentative easing in listings may begin to support house price growth in 2026.
Mr Davidson said lower mortgage rates are likely to provide some support, particularly as housing market conditions become more settled.
“Lower interest rates should help underpin demand, but any lift in prices is likely to be gradual rather than a sharp rebound,” Mr Davidson said.
He cautioned that several more months of consistent sales activity would be needed before the downturn could be considered over.
“Conditions are improving at the margin, we’re seeing this in some of the main centres, and a stabilisation in value declines, but the data suggests we’re entering a period of stability rather than a boom” he said.
Notes:
The Pain and Gain Report analyses homes resold during the quarter, comparing the most recent sale price to the previous sale price to determine whether the result was a gross profit (gain) or gross loss (pain).
