Covering period of Thursday 12 – Monday 16 February
- Orange Heavy Rain Watch on Friday for eastern Bay of Plenty/northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti
- Yellow Heavy Rain Watches on Friday for much of the North Island
- Lower temperatures expected from Saturday.
MetService is predicting the run of warmer-than-average temperatures will end this weekend, as a front moves over the South Island and a low pressure system starts to develop east of the North Island. Both features are expected to bring rain in their wake, as well as strong winds for the North Island and upper South Island. Thunderstorms with localised downpours are also possible for much of the North Island on Friday. Heavy Rain Watches have been issued over most of the North Island from Friday, with an Orange Heavy Rain Warning for eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti.
MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker states, “Warm and humid conditions over the North Island on Friday are likely to generate thunderstorms, with the potential for localised intense bursts of rain.”
The front moving up the South Island on Friday will bring a burst of heavy rain to western areas, with some rain making it east of the Alps. A southerly moving through on Saturday brings heavy showers and potential thunderstorms for Otago and Canterbury during the second half of the day.
While the low centre developing east of the North Island will be driving much of the weekend weather, its exact position is still uncertain. This means it is tricky to nail down the intensity and location of potential severe weather. The forecast position may change from one day to the next, so if you have plans over the weekend, it’s a good idea to keep checking the forecast.
“We’re currently predicting the rain will stay away until the tail end of Wellington’s Round the Bays on Sunday, which should motivate participants to keep up the pace. However, there will still be strong southerlies during the races, so take advantage of those tailwinds when you can,” advises Bakker.
We still have a couple of days of warmer temperatures and high humidity ahead of us, but things are set to change this weekend as cooler air pushes in from the south. A lot of the South Island will have a cooler-than-average weekend, with a few locations seeing a difference of more than ten degrees between Friday’s and Sunday’s maximum temperatures. Cooler temperatures move up the North Island through Saturday and should stick around into early next week.
For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email metcomms@metservice.com
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.
