Source: Radio New Zealand
Month on month, just over 3200 products increased in cost from September to October 2025. Bianca Ackermann / Unsplash
Higher food prices could have New Zealanders rethinking their Christmas meal plans – and a barbecue is likely to be an expensive option, one economist says.
Infometrics has released its latest Grocery Supplier Cost Index, which measures the change in the cost of grocery goods charged to Foodstuffs supermarkets.
It shows there was an average annual increase of 2.5 percent in October.
“October’s rise was the fastest pace of supplier cost increases since mid-2024,” said Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen.
“Material cost increases for a number of key items continue to drive an acceleration… with protein cost rises now a more dominant driver.
“Underlying costs for other items, like chocolate, are also continuing to rise. Supply constraints globally, relative to demand for these items, are pushing costs higher, which are influencing domestic cost decisions too. Supply has improved for dairy products, which has limited cost increases and seen some relief in high butter prices.”
Month on month, just over 3200 products increased in cost from September to October 2025.
Seafood costs were up 4.5 percent, bakery almost 4 percent and butchery just behind.
Chilled foods were up just under 3.5 percent.
“It’s less that you’re seeing everything or a lot of items increasing in cost, it’s instead that you’re seeing some bigger increases for some specific and fairly vital household costs.
“Not only was it beef, not only mince, but steaks as well, an increase coming through for lamb and for fish… the protein story I think is pretty well understood but it’s been a key part of the increase whereas the likes of butter have eased back.”
Produce prices should ease into the summer months, he said, but there was little sign that the price of meat and fish would fall.
“Supply is limited both in New Zealand and overseas and demand is still strong.
“If you look at the recent livestock kills in New Zealand, both lamb and beef kills over the 12 months to September were sitting 3.9 percent lower than a year ago which is why you’re still seeing those slaughter prices, input costs and similar increasing. We’ve got less meat coming through at the moment so all of that is contributing.”
He said while 2.5 percent was uncomfortable it was nowhere near the double-digit percentage increases of recent years.
“But I think part of feeling it is just how noticeable it is, you go for a shop at least once a week at least, if not sometimes once a day, that means it is so much more in your face… especially coming into summer when people often think about doing bigger shared meals and the cost starts to come up a lot more.”
He said people might be thinking about adjusting their Christmas plans.
“I would expect to see less steak, burgers, mince patties or lamb roasts this year and probably more chicken or pork chops.”
There could be more demand for ham, he said.
“Domestic pork slaughter numbers are actually up on a year ago. None of these are massively material but at the margins they do start to make a bit of difference so I’d be expecting a bit more focus on Christmas hams and that sort of thing this year. Chicken from a relatively affordable point of view… trying to think about doing a barbecue is a pretty expensive endeavour these days.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
