Source: Earth Sciences New Zealand
Here is this year’s Tropical Cyclone (TC) Outlook for the Southwest Pacific.
With thanks to MetService, the University of Newcastle, and meteorological services across the Pacific Islands for helping put this together.
- Overall normal to below normal activity
- Five to nine named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific from November 2025-April 2026 (the long-term average is around nine)
- Significant differences are expected between the western and eastern halves of the basin
- The risk of impact from a TC is expected to be higher near the Coral Sea, and around New Caledonia and Vanuatu
- Normal to reduced risk is anticipated for the central part of the basin
- Reduced risk is expected for the eastern part of the basin
- Between 2-4 severe TCs reaching category 3 or higher may occur anywhere across the region, so all communities should remain prepared.
