The Interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the ten months ended 30 April 2025were released by the Treasury today. The April results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 (BEFU 2025), published on 22 May 2025, and the results for the same period for the previous year.
The majority of the key fiscal indicators for the ten months ended 30 April 2025 were slightly better than forecast. The Government’s main operating indicator, the operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx), showed a deficit of $7.4 billion. This was $0.1 billion smaller than forecast. While the core Crown results were favourable to forecast, this was largely offset by the results of State-owned Enterprises. Net core Crown debt was in line with forecast at $184.6 billion, or 43.2% of GDP.
Core Crown tax revenue, at $100.4 billion, was $0.7 billion (0.7%) higher than forecast. Corporate tax and other individuals’ tax contributed $0.4 billion and $0.2 billion respectively to the above forecast result.
Core Crown expenses, at $115.8 billion, were $0.1 billion (0.1%) below forecast. This variance is mostly timing in nature and was spread across a range of agencies.
The OBEGALx was a deficit of $7.4 billion, $0.1 billion less than the forecast deficit. When including the revenue and expenses of ACC, the OBEGAL deficit was $11.7 billion, in line with the forecast deficit.
The operating balance deficit of $6.7 billion was $2.8 billion higher than the forecast deficit. This reflected both the OBEGAL result and net unfavourable valuation movements. Net gains on financial instruments were $4.3 billion lower than forecast, driven by New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZS Fund) and ACC’s investment portfolios. This unfavourable variance was partly offset by net gains on non-financial instruments being $1.3 billion higher than the forecast loss. This was largely owing to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme with net gains on the liability being $1.1 billion higher than the forecast loss.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $8.4 billion was $0.1 billion lower than forecast. While net core Crown operating cash outflows were $0.4 billion higher than forecast, net core Crown capital cash outflows were $0.5 billion lower than forecast.
Net core Crown debt at $184.6 billion (43.2% of GDP) was in line with forecast. With core Crown residual cash broadly in line with forecast, this and minor movements in non-cash items contributed to the net core Crown debt result.
Gross debt at $203.5 billion (47.7% of GDP) was $6.3 billion lower than forecast, largely owing to lower than forecast unsettled trades and issuances of Euro Commercial Paper.
Net worth at $181.4 billion (42.5% of GDP) was $3.1 billion lower than forecast largely reflecting the year-to-date operating balance result.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2025 Actual1 $m |
April 2025 BEFU 2025 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 BEFU 2025 $m |
Variance BEFU 2024 % |
June 2025 BEFU 2025 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 100,365 | 99,645 | 720 | 0.7 | 120,894 |
| Core Crown revenue | 110,787 | 110,304 | 483 | 0.4 | 134,188 |
| Core Crown expenses | 115,808 | 115,937 | 129 | 0.1 | 142,207 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (8,439) | (8,565) | 126 | 1.5 | (9,990) |
| Net core Crown debt4 | 184,620 | 184,622 | 2 | – | 185,644 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 43.2% | 43.2% | 42.7% | ||
| Gross debt | 203,505 | 209,766 | 6,262 | 3.0 | 209,999 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 47.7% | 49.1% | 48.3% | ||
| OBEGAL excluding ACC (OBEGALx) | (7,444) | (7,526) | 82 | 1.1 | (10,175) |
| OBEGAL | (11,667) | (11,660) | (7) | (0.1) | (14,740) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | (6,665) | (3,872) | (2,793) | (72.1) | (5,493) |
| Net worth | 181,424 | 184,553 | (3,129) | (1.7) | 183,130 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 42.5% | 43.2% | 42.1% | ||
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 December 2024) of $426,925 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using BEFU 2025 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2025 of $435,148 million (Source: The Treasury).
- Net core Crown debt excludes the NZS Fund and core Crown advances. Net core Crown debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
