New Zealand’s mobile services revenue is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% from $1.5 billion in 2024 to $1.8 billion in 2029, driven by the nationwide network expansion by operators to support the rising demand for high-speed connectivity and data-centric services and the subsequent increasing 5G adoption, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s New Zealand Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 1% CAGR over the forecast period, owing to the increasing consumer preference towards over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms, and the decline in voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels with telcos offering unlimited voice minutes with their mobile service plans.
Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 5.6% between 2024 and 2029, driven by the steady growth in the consumption of mobile data services over 4G/5G networks, and most importantly increasing adoption of higher-ARPU yielding-5G services.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 7.6GB in 2024 to 13.8GB in 2029, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of data-centric packages offered by telcos.”
4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2029 as operators continue to enhance and expand their LTE networks. For instance, One NZ is expanding its 4G network coverage to all locations by August 2025. Furthermore, in September 2024, Spark partnered with Nokia to expand its 4G and 5G networks, in key cities across New Zealand.
5G subscriptions, however, are estimated to increase at the fastest rate over the forecast period and are expected to account for about 47% of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2029, as operators accelerate their 5G rollouts to more locations in the country. For example, Spark New Zealand is actively progressing towards its plan of extending 5G connectivity to all towns with populations exceeding 1,500 by June 2026.
Mahananda concludes: “One NZ will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2029, given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network expansion and developments across the country as well as its development of innovative, customer-focused plans and offerings.”
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