- Number of New Zealanders expecting house prices to increase continues to rise – a net 33 percent compared to 24 percent in the previous quarter, with Aucklanders most confident.
- Slight drop in proportion of Kiwi expecting interest rates to fall, from net 57 to net 51 percent, reflecting some concerns.
- Nationwide, a net 23 percent of respondents think it’s a good time to buy a house, although confidence wavers in Auckland.
ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey out today reveals while New Zealanders on average remain optimistic about the housing market, momentum is yet to pick up.
Across all regions, Kiwi are confident house prices will continue to increase this quarter, with Aucklanders remaining the most confident, but Canterbury showing the highest rise in confidence over the quarter (net 38%, up from 25% in Q3 2024).
The survey (which predates the RBNZ’s February OCR cut) showed a slight drop in number of respondents who are expecting interest rates to lower (a decrease to net 51 percent, down from a record 57 percent in the previous quarter). Cantabrians replaced Aucklanders as most optimistic this time around.
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley says “These results align with expectations for a slower pace of OCR cuts for the rest of 2025. Inflation is back under control, and the RBNZ has already cut the OCR considerably. There may also be some concern about the inflationary impacts of Trump’s re-election in the US.”
Buyer sentiment also inches up, with a net 23 percent of those surveyed believing it’s a good time to buy, compared to 20 percent last quarter. The North Island (excluding Auckland) and Canterbury lead the way as most confident at net 24 percent.
In contrast to the nation-wide uplift in confidence levels, the number of Aucklanders who think it’s a good time to buy slightly fell from a net 24 to 23 percent.
“For those considering buying a home, there is a bit of a sweet spot at the moment with interest rates continuing to fall, high levels of supply and subdued house prices.
Even though Kiwi are optimistic about house prices going up and are increasingly confident this is a good time to buy – we are yet to see much shift in housing market momentum, so it’s not necessarily translating into increased activity.
This is also reflected in the latest data from REINZ which shows a surge in new inventory of homes on the market, while sales continue to decline,” says Tuffley.
The ASB Housing Confidence Survey canvasses thousands of Kiwi across the country each quarter on their view of the housing market and future expectations.
