The housing market is on track for its flattest calendar year in more than a decade, despite a modicum of growth this quarter.
The latest QV House Price Index shows home values grew nationally by an average of 0.3% in the November quarter – the first quarterly increase since April. The average home is now worth $908,173, which is 0.7% less than at the same time last year and 14.6% below the market’s peak just over three years ago.
Among New Zealand’s main urban centres, Auckland (0.5%), Hamilton (1.2%), Napier (0.9%), Christchurch (0.3%) and Dunedin (0.7%) all recorded modest quarterly home value increases for the first time in months. The average rate of reduction also slowed this quarter in Tauranga (-1%) and Wellington (-0.9%).
“Time will tell whether or not we’re finally witnessing the modest beginnings of the housing market’s long-awaited rebound or whether this is just another small bump in what has been a remarkably bumpy road in recent years,” said QV operations manager James Wilson.
“Interest rate reductions have certainly paved the way for a general uplift in activity and market sentiment across much of the country. We’re now seeing significantly more Kiwis at open homes and in auction rooms, which has largely stemmed what was, for the most part, a slow reduction in property values throughout winter. But with such a large supply of homes for sale, demand isn’t yet converting into significant price pressure.
“We did see an overall increase in property values around the same time last year too, which petered out as interest rates, the increased cost of living, rising unemployment and slowing migration took hold once more. These are still pretty major factors today and will also continue to play a pivotal role in hampering any significant home value growth as we move into 2025, even as mortgage rate relief finally sets in.”
Despite this modicum of growth in the November quarter, the average home in Aotearoa is now worth just 0.3% more than at the start of this calendar year. “With December’s figures still to be accounted for, the housing market looks to be on track for its flattest calendar year in more than a decade,” said Mr Wilson.
“Looking ahead, there’s still very little to suggest that house prices will suddenly take off any time soon, with supply far outweighing demand. There are still buyers waiting in the wings for economic conditions to improve and for interest rates to drop further. It looks like they may get their wish in 2025 but it could still be a while yet, and any growth in the meantime is expected to be moderate at best.”
Download a high resolution version of the latest QV value map here: https://qv.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7ea78a69a1f7991bf60632008&id=68eb1bafa7&e=12a3161b1f
Northland
Home values went up by an average of 1.1% this quarter in Northland.
The average value increased 3.7% to $702,886 in the Far North, and by 0.6% to $822,358 in Kaipara. Whangarei, on the other hand, experienced a small decrease of 0.3% to $718,786.
However, values are still 1.6% lower on average across the wider region than they were at the start of 2024.
Auckland
Auckland has just recorded its first positive quarter since January, albeit a modest one.
Our latest QV House Price Index shows Auckland’s average residential property value increased by 0.5% to $1,238,682, including by 0.8% last month alone. It follows nine straight months of negative home value growth.
Just two of the Super City’s former local council areas recorded minor reductions this quarter – Waitakere (-0.3%) and Auckland City (-0.4%) – with North Shore (1.7%) and Papakura (1.1%) recording the largest average gains.
However, values still remain 3.7% lower on average across the region than at the start of 2024, with only December’s figures still to come.
“Auckland saw a slight increase in activity during November, with sales volumes increasing in most areas,” said local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson. “First-home buyers remain particularly active, with quite a few new townhouse sales.”
“December is always hard to predict with Christmas and holidays looming. Looking further ahead though, lots of new developments have just started, so it seems as though developers must be feeling reasonably confident, with more OCR cuts predicted throughout 2025.”
Tauranga
Tauranga has experienced a slight rebound after five months of slow decline.
The city’s average home value experienced a modest monthly increase of 0.2% to $1,005,306 in November. However, the average home value is still 1% lower for the quarter – a slight improvement on the 1.6% quarterly decline recorded in October.
On average, a home in Tauranga is now worth 2.9% less than at the start of 2024.
Waikato
It’s been an up-and-down year for Hamilton’s residential property market.
The latest QV House Price Index shows values have risen by an average of 1.2% this quarter – the city’s first quarterly growth since February. However, the average home value in Hamilton still remains 0.2% lower than at the start of 2024 at $783,681.
Local QV property consultant Marshall Wu said the housing market had shown modest improvement compared to a few months ago. “This has been driven by recent interest rate cuts, controlled inflation and a rebound in purchasing activity, despite high levels of advertised stock continuing to weigh the market down.”
“Buyers are leveraging the current conditions but they remain cautious. Many are anticipating further interest rate cuts over the next six months to avoid higher borrowing costs,” Mr Wu said. “However, uncertainties still persist, including stagnant rental growth, declining net migration, pressure on labour market and a softening economy.”
“While these factors may temper market momentum, they could also provide some stability, helping to maintain a floor under property prices,” he added.
Meanwhile, the regional market continues to exhibit mixed trends, with home values down on average this quarter in Hauraki (-0.5%), Otorohanga (-3.3%), South Waikato (-2.4%), and Waitomo (-4.9%) but increasing marginally everywhere else.
Taranaki
Home values have risen across the wider Taranaki region this quarter.
New Plymouth’s average home increased in value by 1% to $718,279. That figure is now 1.6% higher than at the start of 2024.
The average home value also increased by 3.7% to $488,069 in Stratford, and by 0.9% to $441,329 in South Taranaki.
Hawke’s Bay
Home values in Napier and Hastings have experienced their first positive quarter since June this year.
The latest QV House Price Index shows Napier’s average home value increased by 0.9% in the November quarter to $741,880, with Hastings’ average home value also increasing by 2.3% this quarter to $787,117.
However, it remains to be seen whether these cities will finish 2024 in the black. With one month to go, the average home value is 1.6% lower in Napier than at the start of this year, and 0.7% lower in Hastings.
Residential property values in Wairoa and Central Hawke’s Bay are also currently 2.4% and 0.5% lower on average respectively than at the start of 2024.
Palmerston North
Home values remain largely flat in Palmerston North.
The city’s average home increased in value by 0.1% last month to $632,036 – its second consecutive month of minimal growth – but once again it’s not enough to erase a small deficit of 0.5% for the November quarter.
With one month to go, the city’s average home value is now 1.6% lower than at the start of 2024.
Local QV registered valuer Olivia Betts commented: “Interest rate deductions have had a positive influence on activity within the market. But many potential buyers and investors are still taking a ‘wait and see’ approach letting expectations of further interest rate reductions influence their decisions.”
Wairarapa
With one month to go, the average home value in the wider Wairarapa region is now 1.8% higher than at the start of 2024.
Just Carterton is showing a small deficit of 0.4% this calendar year. Its average home value reduced by just 0.1% to $626,529 in the November quarter.
Meanwhile, the average home value increased by 0.1% to $573,920 in Masterton this quarter, and by 3.5% to $770,596 in South Wairarapa. Values in these districts are now 2.1% and 2.3% higher respectively than at the start of 2024.
Wellington
Home values continue to level out in Wellington, even as economic headwinds continue to buffet the capital.
Our latest QV House Price Index shows the region’s average home value reduced by just 0.9% to $838,539 throughout the November 2024 quarter – compared to a 2.3% average decline in the three months to the end of October, and 3.2% in the three months to the end of September.
Hutt City even recorded its first positive quarter since March, albeit a minimal one. Its average home value increased by just 0.1% to $763,839. Otherwise, Upper Hutt (-2.5%) experienced the largest quarterly decline, and Porirua (-0.1%) experienced the smallest.
With one month to go, the average home value in the Wellington region is now 2.3% lower than at the start of 2024.
Local QV senior consultant David Cornford said home value declines had begun to peter out in recent months as a result of lower interest rates. “There appears to have been an uptick in market activity over the last few weeks, but this is yet to translate into value growth.”
“The labour market in the capital continues to have its challenges, and as such we’re seeing a general caution in the property market. We also expect that relatively high stock levels will continue and likely build in the new year, having a dampening effect on value growth.”
Nelson
Residential property values have risen slightly in consecutive months in Nelson.
The city’s average home value increased by 0.2% to $780,689 this quarter, including by just 0.1% in the month of November itself.
With one month of 2024 still to be accounted for, the average Nelson home is worth 0.5% more than at the start of this calendar year.
QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell commented: “It seems like market confidence has improved following recent OCR cuts. We’ve seen increased activity over the past month with multi-offers being reported for entry-level properties.”
He said inventory levels remained high with a number of properties available for sale across the region. “Properties that are not being accurately priced are sitting on the market for an extended period with price reductions common,” he added.
However, Mr Russell noted there was currently a shortage of modern homes for sale in Nelson. “Purchasers have been increasingly looking to buy in the Tasman District, which typically has newer stock available,” he added.
West Coast
Home values on the West Coast have outperformed every other region in 2024.
Although low sales volumes are still causing home value statistics to fluctuate from month to month and quarter to quarter on the West Coast, our latest QV House Price Index shows that values have risen considerably more here on average than anywhere else this year.
In Buller, the average home value has increased by 12.4% to $388,392 in the 11 months to the end of November. In Grey, the average home value has climbed 14.8% so far this calendar year to $446,154, and it has increased by 6.3% to $469,285 over the same period in Westland.
This compares to the national average home value increasing by just 0.3% to $908,173 so far this calendar year.
Canterbury
Christchurch has just recorded its first positive quarter since May, following consecutive months of modest growth.
Our QV House Price Index for November 2024 shows a 0.3% quarterly uplift with the average home value in the Garden City now sitting at $763,183. That figure is 1.4% higher than at the outset of this calendar year.
QV senior consultant Olivia Brownie noted the average value level was now back at roughly the same level as it was three years ago. “As the economy continues to adjust, and with a further lowering of interest rates, we may see more confidence in owner-occupiers next year, alongside an uptick in activity from first-home buyers and investors,” she said.
“Yet with such a high number of listings available on the market, the introduction of debt-to-income ratio rules and a tightening labour market, we expect any growth to be measured.”
Meanwhile, the average home value in the Waimakariri District decreased by 0.1% to $709,040, and the average home value in Selwyn increased by 0.9% to $840,480. Hurunui’s average value increased by a relatively robust 2.8% to $649,126.
Across the wider Canterbury region, home values also reduced by 0.8% this quarter in Ashburton and by 0.1% in Timaru.
Otago
Dunedin has experienced its first quarterly uplift in average home value since June.
The city’s average home value has grown 0.7% to $643,391 in the three months to the end of November 2024 – an improvement on the small 0.1% average reduction recorded for the three months to the end of October 2024.
With one month of 2024 still to be accounted for, the average home value in Dunedin is now 2.6% more than it was at the outset of this calendar year.
Local QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston commented: “We’re seeing stable, albeit minimal, growth across the Dunedin market. The factors at play right now include a combination of job insecurity, rising unemployment, many buyers still being on higher fixed rates, and a significantly high number of properties available on the market,” she added.
Meanwhile, home values were up across the wider Otago region by an average of 0.5% this quarter, with Queenstown (-0.4%) being the only local council area to see a small reduction in our latest figures.
Queenstown
Queenstown’s average home value reduced by 0.4% in the November quarter to $1,828,811.
With one month of 2024 still to be accounted for, the average home value is now 2.9% higher than on the first day of this year.
Invercargill
Invercargill’s average home value has bounced back up 2% in the November quarter, following a slight 0.4% reduction in the October quarter.
At $490,286, the average home value in New Zealand’s southernmost city is now 2.7% higher than it was at the start of 2024, with December’s QV House Price Index figures still to come next month.
Local QV registered valuer Andrew Ronald noted the city’s average home value had grown by 3.6% in the 12 months to the end of November 2024.
“There is still steady demand from first-home buyers and investors are beginning to return to the market with the restoration of interest tax deductibility rules. Agents are reporting strong interest for properties under $600,000 and multiple offers are common. This is likely to flow through to strengthening value levels over the next few months.”
The QV HPI uses a rolling three month collection of sales data, based on sales agreement date. This has always been the case and ensures a large sample of sales data is used to measure value change over time. Having agent and non-agent sales included in the index provides a comprehensive measure of property value change over the longer term.
