Source: Quality Valuation (QV)
For all of the property market’s many minor zigs and zags this year, the average home in New Zealand Aotearoa is now worth practically the same as at the start of 2024.
Our latest QV House Price Index shows the average home value decreased nationally by an average of 0.8% throughout the three months to the end of October – compared to a 1.6% average decline in the three months to the end of September, and 2% in the three months to the end of August. The average home is now worth $902,231, which is just 0.3% ($2,839) less than at the start of this year.
“New Zealand’s housing market remains largely flat overall, with essentially no growth to speak of during the month of October itself – neither up nor down – and only a slight decline nationally this quarter of less than 1% on average,” said QV operations manager James Wilson.
“Home values have flattened out again after some more sizeable yet still relatively modest reductions throughout the winter months, but they are still showing no signs of taking off anytime soon. This is reflective of a housing market that is still severely constricted by strong economic headwinds – despite recent interest rate reductions, which will still take some time to phase through.”
Likewise, our latest housing data also shows that home values have continued to slowly level out across most of New Zealand’s main urban areas, with the average three-month rolling rate of reduction slowing in Auckland (-0.8%), Christchurch (-0.2%), Hamilton (-0.6%), Tauranga (-1.6%), Dunedin (-0.1%) and more.
Even Wellington’s average rate of home value decline has slowed from 3.2% to 2.3% this quarter – though that figure is still more than twice the national average. “Heightened job insecurity is being more keenly felt in the capital. Otherwise, most of NZ’s other main centres appear to be bouncing along the bottom now,” Mr Wilson said.
Just a trio of urban areas recorded positive growth this quarter – Nelson (1.3%), Queenstown (1.2%), and Whangarei (0.3%) – despite a marked increase in consumer confidence following recent mortgage rate cuts and a spreading expectation that the Reserve Bank will again cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) later this month.
“There has been a notable mindset shift in recent times that we’re probably through the worst of it now, and that interest rates are going to continue to reduce. But this is being balanced out with a high level of stock available for purchase on the market, which is helping to keep prices down, as well as rising unemployment, which is still a very real concern for many,” Mr Wilson said.
“Interest rate relief is on the way for homeowners, but it will take some time for it to be fully felt. In the meantime, active interest in the real estate market continues to grow. First-home buyers are still the most active buyer group today, but investors are slowly coming out of the woodwork again, as are owner-occupiers who have been waiting for conditions to improve.
“Housing affordability remains a challenge for everyone, even as economic conditions slowly improve. Prospective buyers have to weigh up the benefits of falling interest rates and having a smorgasbord of properties to choose from, versus rising unemployment and increased job insecurity. With that in mind, it’s little wonder why it’s still relatively quiet for this time of year and property values remain so weak.”
Download a high resolution version of the latest QV value map here.
Northland
Whangarei has managed to break out of the status quo this quarter.
Home values in New Zealand’s northernmost city have increased by 0.3% to $718,545 – its first quarterly increase since May this year.
Otherwise, the average home value in the Far North decreased by 3.2% to $686,308 this quarter, and in Kaipara it reduced by 5.8% to $801,134. These figures remain volatile due to continued low sales volumes.
Auckland
Residential property values in Auckland have been in slow decline for much of the year – but now that trend appears to finally be levelling out.
Our latest QV House Price Index shows the city’s average home value reduced by just 0.8% this quarter to $1,228,874. This is compared to average home value reductions of 1.7%, 2.8%, and 3.4% in the September, August, and July quarters respectively.
On a more macro level, home values have continued to reduce across almost all of the Super City’s seven former local government areas, with Papakura being the only exception. Its average home value grew by 2.8% this quarter to $887,155 – its largest amount of quarterly growth since November last year.
All other areas recorded average deficits of between 2.3% (Manukau) and 0.4% (North Shore), with the average rate of reduction slowing from September to October everywhere except in Rodney.
Local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson commented: “Taken as a whole, the Auckland market continues to show a ‘bottoming out’ trend, but I do feel as though prices in some suburbs may have already stopped decreasing and appear to be sitting stable now.
“As mortgage rates drop and summer approaches, there seems to be a few more buyers out there now, with a lot of new-build apartments and townhouses still on the market across the city, providing plenty of choice.”
He said Auckland’s central and inner-city suburbs were especially active. “Tidy homes are not lasting long on the market in these areas.”
Tauranga
The value of an average home in Tauranga now hovers just above $1m, following five straight months of slow decline.
Our latest QV House Price Index shows the city’s average home has reduced in value by 1.6% in the October quarter to $1,003,001 – an even slower rate of decline than the 2.1% and 1.5% reductions reported for the September and August quarters respectively.
On average, a home in Tauranga is now worth 3.2% less than at the start of this calendar year.
Waikato
Hamilton has experienced a slight rebound after five months of slow decline.
The city’s average home value experienced a modest monthly increase of 0.2% to $773,694 in October. However, the average home value is still 0.6% lower for the quarter – a slight improvement on the 1.2% quarterly decline recorded in September.
Once again, there were also modest patches of growth across the wider Waikato region’s residential property market, including in South Waikato (3.1%), Waipa (1.7%), Taupo (1%), Waikato District (0.4%), and Matamata-Piako (0.1%).
Thames-Coromandel recorded the largest decline this quarter at 3.4%.
“Market sentiment has risen slightly due to significant interest rate cuts and tax policy changes. Uncertainties persist, however, driven by rising unemployment, softening business conditions and declining net migration,” said local QV property consultant Marshall Wu.
“While listing numbers remain relatively high, sales volumes have increased in line with seasonal market trends. Many vendors are feeling more optimistic about the market compared to several months ago – although buyers are still waiting to see if prices have reached their lowest point.”
Taranaki
Residential property values continue to ease downward at a slow but steady rate in New Plymouth.
The city’s average home value decreased by just 0.2% in the October quarter – the same rate of negative growth as in the September quarter. At $712,492, the average value of a home here is now 0.8% higher than at the start of this calendar year and 2.2% higher than at the same time last year.
Meanwhile, the average home value has increased in Stratford by 1.7% this quarter to $478,751, and also increased in South Taranaki by 1.9% to $436,713.
Hawke’s Bay
Declining property values have slowed this quarter in Napier and Hastings.
The latest QV House Price Index shows Napier’s average home value reduced by 1.8% in the October quarter to $732,110, with Hastings’ average home value also reducing by 1.1% this quarter to $773,579.
It compares to average quarterly declines of 4.2% and 1.8% in Napier and Hastings respectively in September, and 4% and 3% respectively in August.
Once again, only Central Hawke’s Bay managed to buck the downward trend this quarter, with its average home value increasing by a relatively robust 3.4% to $589,873 throughout the three months to the end of October 2024.
Palmerston North
Palmerston North has experienced a slight bump in average home value.
The city’s average home increased in value by 0.4% last month to $631,421, but it wasn’t enough to reverse a small deficit of 0.6% throughout the three months to the end of October. This compares to a 1.3% reduction in the three months to the end of September.
Local QV registered valuer Olivia Betts said Palmerston North had been in a “steady holding pattern” for some time, which she expected would continue throughout the remaining months of 2024.
“Further interest rate drops are anticipated and will be closely considered by potential purchasers and investors, many of whom are still taking a ‘wait and see’ approach,” she said.
“Homes with older, outdated features are struggling to attract buyers. In contrast, there has been a noticeable increase in interest for homes that have been recently modernised, indicating a growing preference for updated amenities among prospective buyers.”
Wairarapa
Home values have reduced by an average of 2.5% across the wider Wairarapa region this quarter.
The average home value held up slightly better in Masterton ($570,654) and South Wairarapa ($753,777), where they decreased by 2% and 1.8% respectively, but reduced by 4.7% in Carterton ($600,564).
Despite these most recent reductions, only Carterton’s average home value is lower than at the same time last year at 1.4% negative growth annually. The average home values in Masterton and South Wairarapa are 1.4% and 3.2% higher respectively.
Wellington
Residential property values continue to dissipate at a faster rate in Wellington than in any other New Zealand city – but the downturn has slowed this quarter.
Our latest QV House Price Index shows the region’s average home value reduced by 2.3% to $837,480 throughout the October 2024 quarter – compared to a 3.2% average decline in the three months to the end of September, and 3% in the three months to the end of August.
Breaking it down by local council area, the largest reductions this quarter occurred in Wellington City (-2.8%), Kapiti Coast (-2.6%), and Upper Hutt (-2.2%). Hutt City (-1.5%) and especially Porirua (-0.5) experienced smaller reductions.
Local QV senior consultant David Cornford commented: “The home value declines that we have seen over recent months in the region appear to be slowing. This indicates that recent interest rate drops are helping to support property values and are bringing more people back to the market.”
“Buyers in the Wellington region remain cautious of over-extending themselves in continued tough economic times, but we are seeing a bit more activity in the market with open-home attendance picking up recently,” he added.
Anecdotally, Mr Cornford had heard from a number of home owners who were planning to list their properties after the next OCR announcement in late November.
“A number of people may be holding off listing their properties in the hopes of achieving a better outcome, so we could well see an influx of properties late in the year and early next. This would add to an already over supplied market, maintaining downward pressure on value growth for longer.”
Nelson
Nelson is one of just a trio of New Zealand’s main centres showing modest home value growth.
Our latest QV House Price Index shows Nelson’s average home value increased by 1.3% to $780,122 throughout the three months to the end of October – a slight increase on the 0.6% growth recorded in the three months to the end of September.
Tasman also experienced a very modest amount of growth this quarter. Its average home value grew by 0.4% to $815,334.
Meanwhile, home values in Marlborough reduced by 2.9% to a new average of $693,939.
QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell commented: “It’s been a relatively stable market with only modest value changes in recent months. The number of houses for sale has increased, which is partly due to continued low sales volumes and properties sitting on the market for an extended period.”
“The lower end of the market is seeing more activity and attendance at open homes, in part due to a reduction in interest rates over recent months,” he added.
West Coast
Low sales volumes are still causing home value statistics to fluctuate on the West Coast.
The average home in Grey District is now worth $438,700 – up 5.9% this quarter; home values in Buller reduced by almost as much on average, dropping by 5.6% to $340,077; Westland’s average home value also increased by 4.7% to $459,124.
Across the region as a whole, the average home is now worth 6.2% more than at the start of 2024.
Canterbury
Property values have remained largely static in Christchurch and the wider Canterbury region this quarter, despite a modicum of growth in October.
The average home value decreased across Canterbury by just 0.1% in the October quarter – compared to average decreases of 0.7%, 1.1%, and 0.7% in the July, August, and September quarters respectively.
And it’s a remarkably similar story in Christchurch, where the average home value has reduced by 0.2% to $759,806 in the October quarter – compared to average decreases of 0.7%, 1.3%, and 0.8% in the July, August, and September quarters respectively.
The neighbouring districts of Hurunui (-0.4%) and Waimakariri (-0.8%) experienced similar declines this quarter, while Selwyn (0.9%) recorded a modest amount of positive growth.
However, on a shorter time scale of a month, Christchurch, Hurunui, and Selwyn all recorded modest growth of between 0.1% and 0.2% in October.
“More sales recorded in the last month have contributed to a slight increase in home values for the Canterbury region as a whole. Though minimal, these latest statistics do show the market has bounced back with a bit more bustle, especially with more transactions in the lower quartile of home values for the month of October,” said QV senior consultant Olivia Brownie.
“With interest rates past their peak, the market overall appears to be at a good equilibrium for buyers and sellers with consistent activity across the residential property market in the region.”
Otago
Home values also remain largely stationary across the wider Otago region.
The most notable exception is Waitaki, where the average home value increased by 2.4% to $510,709 in the October quarter. Queenstown experienced a smaller amount of growth (see below), with all other districts recording flat-to-gently falling values.
In Dunedin, the average home value remained almost completely static this quarter, reducing by just 0.1% to $636,703. That figure is now just 3.6% higher than at the same time last year and 1.5% higher than at the start of 2024.
Local QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston said the number of properties for sale in Dunedin had continued to grow.
“At the same time, demand appears to have weakened somewhat for higher density new build off-plan two-bedroom townhouses within the past several months, indicating this market is currently somewhat saturated,” she said.
“Demand for vacant land continues to remain average in the medium term, with interest rates and building costs making building and development less affordable.”
Queenstown
Queenstown recorded just a modest amount of home value growth this quarter, but it was more than enough to rank second among the main urban areas we monitor in our latest QV House Price Index.
Only Nelson (1.3%) recorded slightly more growth than Queenstown, where the average home value increased by 1.2% to $1,854,585. That figure is now 7.1% higher than at the same time last year and 4.3% higher than at the start of 2024.
Invercargill
Home values have faded by an average of 0.4% in Invercargill this quarter.
The city’s average home value is now $481,923, which is 2.6% higher than the same time last year.
