The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the three months ended 30 September 2024 were released by the Treasury today. (ref. https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/month-end/interim-financial-statements-government-new-zealand-three-months-ended-30-september-2024 )
The September results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2024 (BEFU 2024), published on 30 May 2024, and the results for the same period for the previous year.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2024 Actual1 $m |
September 2024 BEFU 2024 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 BEFU 2024 $m |
Variance BEFU 2024 % |
June 2025 BEFU 2024 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 28,676 | 28,767 | (91) | (0.3) | 122,851 |
| Core Crown revenue | 32,312 | 32,297 | 15 | – | 136,004 |
| Core Crown expenses | 34,871 | 34,765 | (106) | (0.3) | 143,895 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (801) | 1,990 | (2,791) | (140.3) | (8,933) |
| Net core Crown debt4 | 177,614 | 176,958 | (656) | (0.4) | 187,250 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 43.0% | 42.8% | 43.5% | ||
| Gross debt | 186,691 | 186,545 | (146) | (0.1) | 196,708 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 45.2% | 45.1% | 45.7% | ||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | (4,218) | (3,549) | (669) | (18.9) | (13,372) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | (2,169) | (2,089) | (80) | (3.8) | (7,147) |
| Net worth attributable to the Crown | 179,634 | 178,731 | 903 | 0.5 | 173,596 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 43.5% | 43.2% | 40.3% | ||
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 30 June 2024) of $413,301 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using BEFU 2024 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2025 of $430,568 million (Source: The Treasury).
- Net core Crown debt excludes the NZS Fund and core Crown advances. Net core Crown debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
Core Crown tax revenue of $28.7 billion was close to forecast with GST being $0.5 billion (7.0%) below forecast, partly offset by other individuals tax and other direct taxes which were $0.2 billion (9.4%) and $0.2 billion (20.9%) above forecast, respectively.
Core Crown expenses of $34.9 billion were also close to forecast.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) deficit was $0.7 billion more than forecast. The majority of this variance reflects weaker results from Crown entities, in particular Health New Zealand.
The operating balance deficit of $2.2 billion was close to the deficit forecast. The variance in OBEGAL mentioned above was largely offset by favourable valuation changes. With net gains on financial instruments at $4.7 billion being $3.2 billion stronger than expected reflecting market conditions. However, this variance was somewhat offset by net losses on non-financial instruments of $2.7 billion reflecting losses on the Emissions Trading Scheme of $1.5 billion and net actuarial losses on the Accident Compensation Corporation liability of $1.2 billion.
The core Crown residual cash deficit was $0.8 billion compared to a forecast surplus of $2.0 billion. This was largely due to lower core Crown tax receipts ($3.1 billion) from the impact of the Matariki holiday, with a greater amount of receipts being received in the 2023/24 year, rather than in the 2024/25 year as assumed in our forecasts.
Net core Crown debt at $177.6 billion (43.0% of GDP), was higher than forecast by $0.7 billion. The favourable variance in net core Crown debt at 30 June 2024 resulted in a better starting position for the current year which has been fully offset by the weaker residual cash result.
Gross debt at $186.7 billion (45.2% of GDP) was broadly in line with the forecast.
Net worth attributable to the Crown was $179.6 billion (43.5% of GDP), $0.9 billion higher than forecast. In addition to the operating balance variance discussed above, the better net worth starting position from the 30 June 2024 year also contributed to this favourable result.
