Covering period of Monday 20th – Thursday 23rd May
MetService has issued a swathe of Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings for northern and eastern parts of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island, with the rain expected to continue in the east for most of the working week.
MetService Meteorologist Dom Barry says, “A complex low pressure system – a ‘Tasman Sea Special’ – is currently approaching Aotearoa/New Zealand, with an extended band of rain already affecting parts of Northland.”
Rain is forecast to continue southwards as the low pressure system approaches, bringing the possibility of heavy rain to many northern and eastern parts of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island throughout Tuesday. Heavy rain Watches and Warnings have been issued by MetService as a result.
An Orange Heavy Rain Warning has been issued for Hawke’s Bay where 120 to 160 mm of rain can be expected to fall through to Wednesday evening, with the biggest accumulation likely south of the Napier-Taupō Road (SH5). Peak hourly rain rates of 15 to 25 mm/h are likely. Heavy Rain Watches have been issued for Northland, Auckland/Tāmaki Makaurau, Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne/Tairāwhiti and Wairarapa and the Tararua Districts. Some of these may be extended in the future.
Strong easterly winds will be felt across Northland and Tāmaki Makaurau while this system passes today (Monday). There is also a risk of thunderstorms for the likes of Northland today and tomorrow, then Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Tairāwhiti tomorrow only.
Barry continues, “As the low moves southeastwards across the Motu, we can expect areas such as Marlborough and Northern Canterbury to encounter some wet weather from Tuesday, with the rain mainly remaining in the eastern Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island.”
“As always, please stay up to date with the latest forecasts, Watches and Warnings on the MetService website at bit.ly/AllWarnings or on the app,” says Barry.
Meanwhile, in Te Waipounamu/South Island, west of the main divide is becoming fine tomorrow and is the place to be – now’s the time to soak up some sunshine! In the east, it’s the opposite with low cloud and drizzle to most places.
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.
