Covering period of Thu 18 – Mon 22 April – The weather has been mostly fine across Aotearoa New Zealand, however, MetService forecasts a burst of rain on Saturday, before a large area of high pressure brings another run of settled weather as we move into next week.
A cold front approaches the south of the South Island on Friday. Blustery northwesterly winds precede the arrival of rain in the south and west, however, by the end of the day the front weakens leaving areas north of Christchurch mostly dry. For the North Island passing showers are possible in most areas, with Horowhenua, Wellington and the east coast looking to remain dry.
A low pressure system approaching from the Tasman Sea is forecast to bring rain to a large portion of the North Island, leaving most of the South Island remaining dry on Saturday.
MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris states, “the weather models have different ideas about the extent and intensity of the incoming rain, so keep an eye on the forecast for Saturday if you are making outdoors plans.”
Areas north of Taranaki to Napier are most likely to see rain on Saturday with the potential for some heavy falls in the mix. The further south, the less likely rain becomes, but there is risk the wet weather will reach as far south as Wellington and the top of the South Island.
On Sunday the low pressure system moves away to the east which means clearer weather across the country. However, southerlies and showers are possible around Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, while westerly winds bring showers to the south and west of the South Island.
As we enter the new working week high pressure moves in across the country, forecast to bring a settled run of weather. While this will be a good chance for parents to get the kids outdoors, there’s potential the weather will turn as we head towards ANZAC Day.
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.
