Fixed communication services revenue growth in Australia is projected to experience minimal growth, increasing from $7.5 billion in 2023 to $7.8 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.8%. While revenue from fixed voice services is expected to decline, this will be balanced by a slight uptick in revenue from fixed broadband services throughout the forecast period, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s “Australia Fixed Communication Forecast Model (Q4-2023)” indicates that the fixed voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 0.1% over 2023-2028 due to the drop in the overall fixed voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Srikanth Vaidya, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Subscribers’ inclination towards mobile and OTT-based communication services will also drag down the fixed voice revenues over the coming years.”
Fixed broadband service revenue is expected to increase marginally at a CAGR of 1% over the forecast period, mainly supported by the steady growth in fiber-to-the-home/business (FTTH/B) subscriptions on the back of the ongoing coverage expansions by the government.
Vaidya continues: “Fiber lines accounted for a majority 71.6% share of the total fixed broadband lines in 2023, which will increase to 76.1% in 2028. This growth will be supported by the rising demand for high-speed Internet services in the country and the government’s focus on aggressive fiber network expansion nationwide under the National Broadband Network (NBN) project.”
For instance, by June 2023, NBN has connected more than 6.90 million premises across Australia with access to the nbn® Home Ultrafast internet, as part of its network investment plan, providing speeds ranging from 500 Mbps to 1 Gbps. In addition, NBN aims to extend the Fibre to the Node (FTTN) to FTTP network upgrade program to about 3.5 million premises by the end of 2025.
Vaidya concludes: “Telstra will lead the fixed voice services market through 2028, in terms of subscriptions, supported by its strong foothold in VoIP segment. The operator will also lead the fixed broadband market supported by its focus on fiber network coverage expansion and the promotion of cost-effective multi-play plans at discounted prices.”
Notes
Quotes provided by Srikanth Vaidya, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData
Information based on GlobalData’s Australia Fixed Communication Forecast (Q4 2023)
Australia Fixed Communications model quantifies fixed voice and broadband services adoption and revenue tr
