Covering period of Thursday 25 – Monday 29 January – It is going to be changeable for a few days weatherwise for New Zealanders, with MetService forecasting a series of systems to cross the country. Today, Thursday, will be relatively fine for most, although cloudy for the eastern North Island and far south.
A rain-bearing front moves onto the southwest of Aotearoa New Zealand tonight, followed by a more significant rain on Friday night with a second front.
This second front will bring heavy rain and strong wind to the west of the South Island. An Orange Heavy Rain Warning has been issued for the Westland District, with Watches for Fiordland, the Grey District, Buller and the headwaters of rivers in Otago and Canterbury. The rain Warnings run from 8pm Friday until 9am on Saturday.
Strong Wind Watches are in place for Fiordland, the Queenstown Lakes District and northern Southland, the Canterbury High Country and Wellington. The South Island Watches run from 9pm Friday until 9am Saturday, and for Wellington from 6am to 3pm Saturday.
The front moves up the North Island on Saturday, bringing rain or showers to most areas.
MetService meteorologist Alain Baillie says, “The start of Auckland and Northland Anniversary weekend should be dry, with the front only expected to bring a few showers late Saturday night.
Unfortunately, the latter part of Auckland and Northland long weekend doesn’t look so great. Rain and strong northwesterly wind move onto the North Island on Sunday. At this stage, it looks like the lower North Island will receive its heaviest rain on Sunday afternoon and evening, with northern areas, including Auckland and Northland, in the firing line in the evening and overnight.”
By Monday the main rain band has moved off to the east, but it will still be showery across the North Island, with the strong winds switching southerly.
Showers continue over the lower South Island on Sunday before a ridge moves in to fine things up on Monday.
Alain continues, “Apart from a period of rain on Saturday morning, the upper south looks mainly fine, apart from periods of high cloud for the Nelson and Buller Anniversary weekend.”
In other news, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kirrily was named by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, on Wednesday evening. TC Kirrily is expected to cross the north Queensland coast as a Category 2 system around midnight tonight Queensland time and is not expected to impact New Zealand. However, MetService will continue to monitor its progress in case the forecast changes.
Alain advises, “With the changeable weather this week it is important to keep an eye on the MetService Warnings page for updates as the situation unfolds.”
Today, MetService has launched mobile phone notifications which will alert users of the MetService NZ Weather app when Red Warnings for New Zealand’s most extreme weather are issued. Activate yours now and download the app if you haven’t yet.
For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email metcomms@metservice.com
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan
