Covering period of Thu 21 – Mon 25 December – The weather around Aotearoa New Zealand has been generally settled and warm these last few days, but MetService has been keeping a close eye on the moisture spreading across the country this weekend which brings the potential for rain to many places, maybe even into Christmas Day.
High pressure and warm, humid air drifting across the country has meant temperatures around Hawke’s Bay, Canterbury, and Central Otago have been up around the high-twenties with some spots exceeding 30°C. This warmth looks to continue through the weekend and into next week but riding alongside the heat will be the potential for rain.
Friday brings the risk of showers popping up in the west and south of the South Island but it’s Saturday when the more widespread rain begins to move onto the country. This northwest flow of rain continues into Sunday and there’s even potential for a few heavy showers in the mix, mainly across the North Island.
Current models signal that some of the weekend’s moisture will hang around on Christmas Day. However, it looks to be more broken up than the rain of the weekend, and for many parts of the country there is a chance of passing showers on the 25th and a couple heavier showers could pop up. With the weather coming in from the northwest, it does look like eastern areas of both the North and South Island have the largest chance of a dry Christmas Day.
MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris warns: “Those hoping to have a day at the beach on the 25th will need to keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and it’s recommended to have a wet weather plan in case those showers do happen to turn up at your place.”
Those with rain in their Christmas Day forecast currently, shouldn’t give up all hope as there is some wiggle room around the distribution and timing of wet weather. Even if a bit of rain turns up, the temperature looks to be on the warmer side of average and if the cloud breaks, the sunshine will dry things off quickly, but you’ll notice the high humidity.
Looking further ahead, the week between Christmas and New Year looks to remain warm but with a mix of rainy days and more settled ones.
Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:
This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!
Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:
When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!
Orange Warnings are about taking action:
When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.
Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action
Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.
Watches are about being alert:
When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert
Outlooks are about looking ahead:
To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan
