The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the eleven months ended 31 May 2023 were released by the Treasury today.
The May results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2023 (BEFU 2023), published on 18 May 2023 and the results for the same period for the previous year.
The next Financial Statements of the Government will be the audited results for the year ended 30 June 2023. In general, the year-end results are published in early October.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2023 Actual1 $m |
May 2023 BEFU 2023 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 BEFU 2023 $m |
Variance BEFU 2023 % |
June 2023 BEFU 2023 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 103,344 | 105,556 | (2,212) | (2.1) | 115,349 |
| Core Crown revenue | 113,405 | 115,734 | (2,329) | (2.0) | 126,677 |
| Core Crown expenses | 115,076 | 114,827 | (249) | (0.2) | 128,195 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (23,777) | (19,428) | (4,349) | (22.4) | (22,426) |
| Net debt4 | 73,338 | 68,254 | (5,084) | (7.4) | 70,957 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 18.9% | 17.6% | 18.0% | ||
| Gross debt | 133,873 | 132,592 | (1,281) | (1.0) | 134,950 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 34.6% | 34.2% | 34.3% | ||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | (6,510) | (4,372) | (2,138) | (48.9) | (6,959) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | 2,568 | 5,828 | (3,260) | (55.9) | 4,219 |
| Net worth attributable to the Crown | 170,394 | 173,434 | (3,040) | (1.8) | 171,048 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 44.0% | 44.8% | 43.4% | ||
Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 March 2023) of $387,355 million (Source: Stats NZ).
Using BEFU 2023 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2023 of $394,004 million (Source: The Treasury).
The net debt indicator includes core Crown advances, Crown entity borrowings (excluding Kiwi Group Capital) and the financial assets and borrowings of the New Zealand Super Fund (NZS Fund).
Core Crown tax revenue at $103.3 billion, was $2.2 billion below forecast. This is largely due to lower corporate taxes and other individual tax revenue which were lower than forecast by $2.0 billion and $0.6 billion, respectively. Slightly offsetting these was source deduction revenue which was $0.3 billion above forecast reflecting a stronger labour market compared to forecast. We expect this variance will persist to year-end.
Core Crown expenses at $115.1 billion, were close to forecast, however there were offsetting variances spread across a number of spending areas.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) deficit of $6.5 billion was $2.1 billion greater than the forecast largely because of the core Crown variances, slightly offset by the Crown entity results being higher than forecast.
The operating balance was $2.6 billion in surplus, $3.3 billion lower than the forecast surplus. In addition to the variance in OBEGAL, valuation changes in the ACC outstanding claims liability have also contributed to the variance.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $23.8 billion was $4.3 billion higher than forecast. The higher than forecast deficit was primarily driven by net operating cash outflows as tax receipts were lower than forecast and net capital cash outflows which were higher than forecast.
Net debt at $73.3 billion (18.9% of GDP), was higher than forecast by $5.1 billion. This was driven by higher than forecast residual cash deficit, and higher than forecast Crown entity borrowings, partly offset by favourable movements in the fair value of financial assets and liabilities which includes the NZS Fund.
Gross debt at $133.9 billion (34.6% of GDP), was $1.3 billion higher than forecast due largely due to higher than forecast derivative liabilities.
Net worth attributable to the Crown was $170.4 billion which was $3.0 billion lower than forecast, largely as a result of an unfavourable movement in the operating balance.
