Starting from a high level, the KOF Employment Indicator is decreasing slightly. However, above-average employment growth on the Swiss labour market can still be expected in the current quarter.
In the second quarter of 2023, the KOF Employment Indicator recorded a value of 13.1 points and is thus below the value of this year’s first quarter of 14.4 points (revised from 14.8). The indicator thus continues its slight downward trend of the last four quarters. Overall, however, the KOF Employment Indicator is still well above the long-term average of 1.0 points and the level it had before the Corona crisis.
The KOF Employment Indicator is calculated from the quarterly KOF Business Tendency Surveys. The evaluations for the second quarter of 2023 are based on the responses of around 4,500 companies that were surveyed in April about their employment plans and expectations. On balance, a clear majority of the companies surveyed continue to assess the current number of employees as too low. In addition, there are still significantly more companies that want to increase the number of employees in the next three months than companies that plan to reduce employment. The KOF Employment Indicator thus points to above-average employment growth on the Swiss labour market for the current and next quarters.
All sectors except industry with positive outlook
The good labour market situation is also reflected in the KOF Employment Indicators for the individual sectors. Various sector indicators show a slight decrease in the KOF Employment Indicator compared to their highs last year. For example, the indicator decreased in construction, retail trade, wholesale trade, hospitality and project planning. However, with one exception, the sector indicators are still well above the long-term averages.
The exception is manufacturing. Its employment indicator continued its negative trend of the last quarters in April and is now just below zero again for the first time. Slightly more firms in the manufacturing sector assess the current number of employees as too high than too low and therefore plan to reduce employment in the next months.
