Source: MIL-OSI Submissions
On the back of New Zealand’s record property price rises and deteriorating affordability, CoreLogic NZ today released a new Property Vulnerability Index, which analyses how an economic downturn or change in market conditions may impact property in different parts of the country.
New Zealand’s property prices have increased 27.8% in the last year with housing affordability declining to the worst levels on record, causing the Government and Reserve Bank to step in and try to engineer a slowdown to ‘sustainable levels’.
The Property Vulnerability Index takes into account a broad range of important economic and housing measures with weightings allocated based on their potential influence on future property market performance, and provides an indicative assessment of an area’s performance as a result. It is not intended as a forecast of values; instead a relative assessment of each area’s risk in the event of a more significant downturn in the property market.
The six categories include data on housing affordability (25%), Centrix credit reporting (20%), investor activity (15%), demand/supply rebalance (15%), Stats NZ local employment and economy data (15%) and Trade Me Property demand data (10%).
CoreLogic NZ Head of Research Nick Goodall said the index highlighted Otorohanga and MacKenzie as the two most vulnerable Territorial Authorities while Waimakariri and Timaru appear to be least vulnerable. Of the six main centres, Auckland is most vulnerable and Christchurch least vulnerable.
Mr Goodall says, “There are a broad range of factors which will influence the future performance of the property market and these will vary in their relevance from region to region. The results show many of the country’s most vulnerable markets are smaller centres located in the central North Island. The upper South Island and Canterbury regions look less vulnerable than most of the rest of the country.
“It’s also important to note the areas expected to underperform may not necessarily see values fall; but in relative terms they face the greatest economic risks which makes them more vulnerable to a downturn.”
CoreLogic NZ’s Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson says the country’s housing market has been in a significant upswing phase for more than a year. “Following the 2020 lockdown, confidence rebounded, unemployment fell, mortgage rates were cut, and deposit requirements eased, alongside other official measures which played a role in the strong performance of the housing market,” he said.
“Of course, nothing can go up forever and the already stretched position for housing affordability across NZ has further deteriorated in the past year. The Government and RBNZ have introduced various measures to try and curb skyrocketing housing values, which alongside rising mortgage rates, should certainly prove a strong headwind to price growth.
“Should average annual property value growth across NZ fall to 1-2% across the regions, which is around what we’re currently seeing in monthly growth, there would be some areas above that figure and some below – potentially with values actually falling as we move into the next phase of the cycle,” says Mr Davidson.
To access your complimentary copy of CoreLogic NZ’s Property Vulnerability Index, visitcorelogic.co.nz/news.
About CoreLogic NZ:
CoreLogic NZ is a leading, independent provider of property data and analytics. We help people build better lives by providing rich, up-to-the-minute property insights that inform the very best property decisions. Formed in 2014 following the merger of two companies that had strong foundations in New Zealand’s property industry – Terralink Ltd and PropertyIQ NZ Ltd – we have the most comprehensive property database with coverage of 99% of the NZ property market and more than 500 million decision points in our database.
We provide services across a wide range of industries, including Banking & Finance, Real Estate, Government, Insurance and Construction. Our diverse, innovative solutions help our clients identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. We also operate consumer-facing portal propertyvalue.co.nz – providing important insights for people looking to buy or sell their home or investment property. We are a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic, Inc – one of the largest data and analytics companies in the world with offices in New Zealand, Australia, the United States and United Kingdom. For more information visit corelogic.co.nz.
Centrix holds the richest dataset of consumer credit information available in New Zealand. Our extensive and unique credit information database comprises of comprehensive credit information, utility data and supporting credit risk information aggregated from a wide range of sources. Specifically our data comes from:
· Registered banks and other contributors to Comprehensive credit reporting (CCR), providing payment behaviour data. Contributors include finance companies, telco’s, utilities and BNPL.
· Credit enquiries, when businesses or individuals apply for finance – indicative of real time credit demand.
· Monthly snapshots of arrears trends and exposure (open accounts and credit limits).
· Payment history on more than 95% of individuals.
About Trade Me Property
Trade Me Property is New Zealand’s favourite property site with a new home added every three minutes.