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Source: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research

27 May 2020

NZIER forecasts that the New Zealand economy will recover unevenly from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. We expect the decline in activity will be concentrated in the June 2020 quarter, largely reflecting the direct impact of containment measures. Despite a forecast bounce-back in activity from the June 2020 quarter low, NZIER expects activity to remain below levels forecast in the absence of the outbreak, as weaker consumer and business confidence weigh on spending.

New Zealand has undergone unprecedented changes since March, reflecting the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. The effects of the physical restrictions on the New Zealand economy have been sharp, widespread and inevitable. Given the relatively short amount of time spent in lockdown reflecting our success in eliminating COVID-19, the New Zealand economy looks increasingly likely to be at the optimistic end of the scenarios that had initially been considered by The Treasury. With New Zealand moving down the alert levels, more businesses are reopening and offering a wider range of goods and services.

Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.

Read the media release here.

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