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Source: MIL-OSI Submissions
Source: CoreLogic

Making Sense of COVID-19 – CoreLogic Economist Kelvin Davidson writes: ‘Making sense of it all: Part II” – COVID-19, the economy, and property.
On 18th March, we wrote an article covering ten key points to be aware of in relation to COVID-19, the economy, and the property market*. That article proved very popular, and given how much has changed in the past two weeks, it’s now necessary to provide another group of ten key points.
No property settlements that involve the physical movement of people will be possible during the level four lockdown.
This means that the property market is basically in hiatus for the duration of this lockdown (however long it might prove to be). However, the operative word here is ‘physical’ – we’ve heard anecdotally that virtual auction/tender deals are still being looked at, and both buying and selling enquiries down this path are ‘solid’. The hope has to be that many property sales are simply deferred until the lockdown eases, rather than being lost altogether.
Real estate activity is already falling sharply.
Nevertheless, not all activity can/will be deferred, and real estate enquiries have already been impacted. As we noted in a blog on Monday**, comparative market analysis report ordering has fallen sharply and survey results of activity are weak.
NZ will have a deep recession and rising unemployment.
The economic issues we face will also result in some sales simply never taking place. Indeed, analysts’ forecasts currently envisage our economy shrinking by 6-7% in 2020 and the unemployment rate rising from around 4% to 8-9%. In that environment, people who don’t need to move won’t.