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In this issue – Suitable indication of future population change, International migration – upcoming update to provisional estimates…

Suitable indication of future population change – advice to users

We have updated advice and tables first published in June 2019, on the suitability of the latest population projections as an indication of future population change in the short and long term. These indications are based on the estimated population change since 2013, which now incorporate the outcomes-based migration measure, and reflect the 2018 Census population distributions.

You can find this updated information here: Subnational population projections: 2013(base)–2043 update.

International migration – upcoming update to provisional estimates

The release of November 2019 international migration data on 23 January 2020 will include an update to the estimation system which classifies travellers as long-term movements (migrants) or short-term movements (non-migrants). Individual travel histories will be improved by better identifying subsequent border-crossings. This will affect the provisional migration estimates for August 2018 to November 2019. Final migration estimates are unaffected.

This improvement means that an additional 15,000 border-crossings (0.1 percent of the total 15.3 million border-crossings) from October 2018 to October 2019 can be linked in the estimation system. Including the additional border-crossings enables a more accurate classification of travellers as migrants or non-migrants. In these cases, the border-crossings are now more likely to be classified as non-migrants rather than migrants. There is no change to the model that classifies border-crossings for provisional migration estimates; this is simply an improvement to the ongoing identification and linking of border-crossings.

Impact on population estimates

Updates to migration estimates are reflected in regular updates to national and subnational population estimates. National population estimates: At 31 December 2019 will be released on 18 February 2020, and as usual will include revisions to the previous six quarters to reflect revised migration estimates.

For more information contact the population indicators manager, Tehseen Islam at: tehseen.islam@stats.govt.nz.

2018 geographic boundary files available

The annual geographic boundary files (for 2020), which are used in mapping and geographic information systems (GIS), became available to download from the Stats NZ Geographic Data Service (Datafinder) on 4 December 2019.

The data contains the following geographic layers: meshblock (MB), statistical area 1 (SA1), statistical area 2 (SA2), urban rural (UR), territorial authority (TA), regional council (REGC), ward (WARD), Māori ward (MWARD), community/local board (CB), territorial authority subdivision (TASUB), constituency (CON), and Māori constituency (MCON).

The 2020 geographic boundary files also include a correspondence, or concordance, of meshblock to higher geographies (MBHG), which relates meshblocks to larger geographic areas. Statistical areas 1 and 2 are also available as concordances to a selection of higher geographies (SA1HG and SA2HG).

Areas files are text files that concord the latest meshblock to a range of historic meshblocks and to larger geographic areas, such as SA2s and territorial authorities. These files are available for different years, to enable data for the same area classification to be compared over time.

See Maps and geography or email geography@stats.govt.nz for more information.

2018 Census December customer update

On December 16, we published a customer update on 2018 Census data and activities. The update provides information on:

  • the second 2018 Census data release
  • the second external data quality panel report
  • census data quality
  • census transformation research on admin data uses
  • additional technical methods papers that have been published
  • upcoming supporting activities.

Small areas (SA1) dataset

The small areas dataset for 2018 Census contains counts at statistical area 1 (SA1) and other geographic levels for selected variables from the 2018, 2013, and 2006 Censuses. The geographies correspond to 2018 boundaries.

This dataset contains 59 selected output variables at the highest level (level 1) of the classification for our small and local geographic areas, wards, district health boards (DHBs), territorial authorities and local boards, regional councils, and at a national level.

A further four variables (hours worked, unpaid activities, travel to work by usual residence, and workplace address) will be released in the first quarter of 2020. We will send an update when these variables are made available.

This dataset has been designed to provide data for small geographic areas with:

  • less suppression for single-variable data
  • more detailed levels of classifications for some variables
  • simple cross-tabulations, for example, age in five-year groups by sex.

The 2018 Census small areas (SA1) dataset is available in Excel (.xlsx), CSV long format (vertical), and CSV wide format (horizontal) files, and can be integrated with analytical or mapping systems (using geographic boundary files), enabling further analysis of census data.

You can view information about the dataset and download it on our website.

Second external data quality panel report

The initial report of the 2018 Census External Data Quality Panel was published on 23 September 2019 and focused on the release of the 2018 Census data.

There are two further panel reports on 2018 Census data:

The final report will cover families and households, ethnicity to level 4, small areas dataset (SA1) with associated graphs, and other subjects.

Our external data quality panel web page provides more information about the panel and their terms of reference.

NZ.Stat tables

NZ.Stat has been updated with three more 2018 Census data tables. We selected the tables based on enquiries we received and most used tables from the 2013 Census data. The three tables are:

  • ethnic group (detailed single and combination) by age and sex; 2013 and 2018 Censuses
  • ethnic group (detailed total response – level 3) by age and sex; 2006, 2013, and 2018 Censuses
  • Māori descent indicator by age group and sex; 2006, 2013, and 2018 Censuses.

2018 Census regional tour

The 2018 Census tour will visit 35–40 locations around New Zealand in March 2020. The tour will:

  • inform users about published and upcoming census products and services
  • focus on the 2018 Census place summaries, which display 2018 Census data at both the national and local level
  • cover data quality matters
  • update attendees on progress for the next census.

This tour is aimed at professional and community-based users who have some understanding of data use and the value of census data.

The itinerary will be finalised by the end of this month. Following this, we will open formal registrations via the Census Advisory newsletter, which you can subscribe to on our newsletters page.

To find out more, email censusexternalrelations@stats.govt.nz.

Data quality training

Data quality training will be available to users of census data from February 2020. This half-day training session will cover modules such as changes to the 2018 Census model, the methods applied to resolve the challenges faced by 2018 Census, the complexities of the census data, the data quality issues, and the impact of this on data use.

For more information or to register to attend, email censusexternalrelations@stats.govt.nz.

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