Source: MIL-OSI Submissions
Source: The Treasury
– Data released over November was fairly mixed, with some pointing to further slowing in GDP growth, and others indicating that growth may be levelling out.
– Employment growth eased in September, and the unemployment rate returned to its start-of-year level (4.2%). The relatively tight labour market is supporting stronger wage growth.
– Growing wages and low interest rates are supporting consumer confidence but households continue to dissave. Businesses remain downbeat but indicators of manufacturing activity are more positive.
– Data from abroad showed ongoing slowing in many major economies at the start of the December quarter.
– Trade tensions continue to seesaw, but have eased over the last month or so.
This month’s special topic summarises findings from talks the Treasury conducted with businesses and other organisations in late September, as an input into the production of the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update forecasts.